Brian McGlinchey argues against the idea of imposing term limits in Congress, despite the popular support it receives from the American public. While many believe that term limits would improve the political landscape, McGlinchey warns that they could actually worsen the situation.
• Public Sentiment: A 2023 poll found that 87% of Americans support term limits for Congress. Many believe it would lead to better representation as new citizens take office.
• Incumbency Power: The current success rate for incumbents seeking reelection is approximately 98%, creating a perception of stagnation. However, many legislators already leave after serving around 12 years, with significant turnover rates in seats held.
• Churn of Seat-Holders: About 69% of House seats and 62% of Senate seats change occupants within a 12-year timeframe. This suggests that the system is not as stagnant as term limit advocates might claim.
• Polarization: Term limits are unlikely to reduce political polarization. In fact, more frequent changes in Congress could lead to heightened primary contention, as candidates cater to their party's extremes.
• Revolving Door: McGlinchey highlights the issue of the "revolving door," where legislators move into lobbying positions after leaving Congress. Term limits may increase this problem, as more legislators could leave and subsequently pursue lobbying careers.
• Challenges for New Legislators: New legislators without experience may be more vulnerable to outside influences from lobbyists who offer funding and guidance, potentially undermining the hoped-for benefits of fresh faces in Congress.
• Fundraising Dynamics: Fundraising is a continual concern for legislators, regardless of term limits. They must raise significant amounts of money for party committee assignments, often leading them to prioritize fundraising over policy understanding.
• Ambitions of Term-Limited Legislators: Legislators nearing the end of their term may focus on future career ambitions rather than governance. This makes them more susceptible to outside pressures that offer benefits for support.
The concept of term limits might be appealing to those frustrated with current congressional representatives. However, McGlinchey argues that these limits would not address the core issues of concentrated power and influence from special interests in Washington. Instead, it may exacerbate existing problems, oversimplifying the complexities of governance in America. The focus should shift from how often power changes hands to addressing the power itself and the systemic issues within the federal government.
https://starkrealities.substack.com/p/term-limits-would-make-dc-swamp-worse
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