Are We Already In Recession?

Have we already entered a recession? Worse, have we been in a recession for years now?

Thing is, if the official numbers are wrong, it could mean we're already in recession, masked by rising asset prices courtesy of the Fed.

To give a flavor, the official inflation rate since Covid has been around 21%. But fast food menu prices - a go-to indicator for foreign exchange investors - are up between 35% and 50%. People posting grocery receipts online say it's actually more than 50%. The problem is if inflation was actually, say, 35% it means GDP hasn't gone up at all since pre-Covid.

Implying we've been in recession for nearly 5 years.

The affluent keep spending since their stocks soared and their house prices soared - sound familiar?

My colleague EJ Antoni found that manufacturing orders have been flat for at least 3 years, while consumer spending has actually been negative for those 3 years.

Because GDP counts government spending as production. 

https://brownstone.org/articles/are-we-already-in-recession/