Scorecard: How Well Does NOAA’s Hurricane Outlook Actually Perform? 26 Years of Forecasts vs. Reality

On May 21, NOAA will present its official prediction for the 2026 Atlantic hurricane season. Early forecasts suggest a potentially below-normal season due to El Niño conditions. This summary examines NOAA's historical accuracy in its hurricane forecasts and the expectations for this coming season.

1. NOAA's Announcement:

• NOAA will announce its 2026 Atlantic Hurricane Season Outlook at 11:00 a.m. EDT on May 21.

• Early predictions from other agencies indicate a below-normal hurricane season.

2. Historical Accuracy:

• Over 26 years, NOAA has hit its forecast range for named storms and hurricanes about 69% of the time, close to its 70% target.

• NOAA tends to under-forecast activity, especially during years with high storm activity.

3. Notable Years of Missed Forecasts:

• 2005: Forecasted 12–15 storms; actually had 28 storms, including 15 hurricanes.

• 2020: Predicted 13–19 storms; there were 30 named storms.

• 2006: Forecasted 13–16 storms but only had 10 due to an El Niño.

• 2013: Expected 13–20 storms but ended with just 14, 2 of which were hurricanes.

4. Forecasting Challenges:

• Research indicates NOAA's forecasts generally understate storm counts.

• Recent years, particularly since 2017, have seen record-breaking hurricane seasons.

5. Recent Season Insights (2025):

• NOAA predicted a range of 13–19 named storms for 2025, which proved accurate as there were 13 named storms and 5 hurricanes.

• However, the accumulated cyclone energy was above average, indicating high intensity despite lower storm counts.

6. Forward-Looking Statements:

• NOAA is expected to announce their outlook for the 2026 season soon and will likely continue to face scrutiny regarding the accuracy and reliability of their predictions.

As NOAA prepares to reveal its predictions for the 2026 Atlantic hurricane season, understanding the agency's historical forecasting trends is crucial. Despite a reputation for underestimating storm activity, NOAA's directional accuracy has improved. Stakeholders will analyze NOAA's forecast closely, especially regarding the potential impact of El Niño conditions on hurricane formation and severity. 

https://wattsupwiththat.com/2026/05/13/scorecard-how-well-does-noaas-hurricane-outlook-actually-perform-26-years-of-forecasts-vs-reality/