Northwest Blues

Oregon and Washington were once among America's most desirable states to live in, attracting many migrants. However, they have seen a significant decline in popularity due to changing political landscapes, increased taxes, and social unrest, leading to a reversal in migration trends.

• Past Popularity: A decade ago, Oregon and Washington were highly attractive due to their natural beauty, moderate taxes, and growing tech economies. Many people from other states, especially California and Nevada, moved there.

• Political Shift: Starting in the late 2010s, both states began leaning more to the left politically. As a result, government spending and taxes increased, while personal freedoms were restricted, particularly during the Covid-19 pandemic.

• Migration Changes: This political shift has led to a reversal in migration patterns. From 2016 to 2019, approximately 438,000 people migrated to Oregon and Washington. However, from 2020 onward, around 12,000 more people left these states than moved in.

• Tax and Business Climate: As the states adopted more progressive policies, their tax competitiveness declined. Oregon introduced a business activity tax, burdening companies. Washington, previously favorable due to having no income tax, implemented a capital-gains tax that further deteriorated its business climate.

• Impact of Social Issues: Both states faced significant civil unrest, particularly following George Floyd's death. Protests escalated, leading to increased outmigration from cities like Seattle and Portland.

• Housing Crisis: Both states were once seen as affordable, but a housing crisis emerged due to reduced construction and urban growth boundaries. This led to a decline in housing availability and increased costs, prompting former residents to seek homes in states like Idaho and Montana.

Oregon and Washington, known for their appeal a decade ago, are now experiencing a decline in migration due to high taxes, political decisions, and social disturbances. While they still hold some advantages, changes in policy and living conditions are raising concerns about their future as desirable places to live. The political leadership appears to be repeating the policies that contributed to the states' current struggles without addressing the underlying issues. 

https://www.city-journal.org/article/oregon-washington-migration-taxes-regulation