Recent military actions taken by the Trump administration in Venezuela, focusing on their strategy in light of these developments. Following the raid that captured Nicolás Maduro, various analysts and officials expressed concerns and uncertainties regarding the future of U. S. policy in Venezuela. This summary outlines the key points of the emerging plan, its objectives, and potential implications.
1. Concerns About Military Actions:
• Analysts worry that the recent U. S. military actions in Venezuela might lead to a costly entanglement, similar to the experiences in Iraq and Afghanistan.
• Questions arose about the lack of a clear and detailed plan from the Trump administration regarding the future governance of Venezuela.
2. Emerging Strategy:
• The Trump administration is developing a policy focused on using both incentives (carrots) and pressures (sticks) to influence Venezuela's leadership towards actions favorable to U. S. interests.
• This strategy aims to avoid the pitfalls of previous conflicts by not committing to a prolonged military presence or overpromising on democracy promotion.
3. Clarification of Objectives:
• Secretary of State Marco Rubio emphasized that the goal is to change Venezuelan policies rather than outright regime change, focusing on U. S. security and economic interests.
• While democracy in Venezuela is a long-term goal, it is not prioritized in the immediate future.
4. Assessment of Venezuelan Leadership:
• Recent reports suggest that the new Vice President, Delcy Rodríguez, and current regime officials may be better positioned to maintain stability than opposition figures.
• The administration’s approach will evaluate leaders based on their future actions rather than past deeds, indicating a pragmatic shift in focus.
5. Dual-Track Approach:
• If the new leadership in Venezuela complies with U. S. demands, it could lead to reduced military threats and economic pressures, along with significant American investments in Venezuelan infrastructure.
• Conversely, non-compliance would mean continued economic sanctions and potential military action.
6. Avoiding Military Quagmire:
• Trump clarified that there will not be a U. S. military occupation if the new leaders cooperate with American interests.
• The current strategy is modeled to prevent the mistakes encountered in past conflicts, particularly in Iraq and Afghanistan, where goals expanded beyond initial objectives.
7. Potential for Wider Applications:
• Although focused on Venezuela, the strategy could influence U. S. relations with other nations, such as Cuba, which is already impacted by economic sanctions.
• Some analysts express concerns about the implications this approach could have in future U. S. foreign policy decisions.
The U. S. strategy towards Venezuela is evolving in response to recent events, characterized by a shift away from overambitious democracy goals towards a focus on national security and economic interests. While the effectiveness of this strategy remains uncertain, it reflects a calculated effort to learn from past experiences in foreign military engagements. The coming weeks and months will be critical in determining whether this pragmatic approach can yield positive outcomes for both U. S. interests and the Venezuelan populace.
https://foreignpolicy.com/2026/01/07/trump-venezuela-democracy-oil-transition/
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