A recent report by Goldman analysts highlights emerging risks in the U. S. labor market due to changing demographics. A significant issue is the growing mismatch between the surplus of college-educated individuals and the lack of talent for non-degree, hands-on jobs.
• Demographic Changes: The U. S. labor force is declining as the baby boomer generation ages. From a previous workforce of 65 million baby boomers, only 25 million remain, with younger generations too small to fill the gap.
• Structural Slowdown: Data indicates that by 2034, the workforce may only increase by 5.9 million, with a significant portion coming from older workers, even as participation from those aged 55 and older declines.
• Skills Imbalance: There is an oversupply of college graduates while there is a shortage of skilled workers for vocational jobs. This leads to a demand for automation and AI to fill labor gaps, especially in sectors requiring skilled labor for infrastructure and digital transition.
• Low-Skilled Labor Challenges: Many industries face shortages of low-skilled workers, particularly in high-turnover roles. Automating these positions may improve safety and pay but also displaces traditional workers.
• Corporate Adaptations: To address these challenges, companies are focusing on:
1. Automation: Upgrading technologies to enhance productivity.
2. Retention Strategies: Enhancing pay, working conditions, and benefits.
3. Training and Upskilling: Partnering with educational institutions for workforce development.
The changing demographics and evolving labor market present significant challenges in finding skilled labor, especially in manual and vocational jobs. Companies must navigate this landscape by investing in technology, improving jobs, and training workers to ensure a robust workforce moving forward.
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/labor-demographer-issues-warning-college-educated-oversupply-here
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