A recent report from the North American Electric Reliability Corporation (NERC) has warned that much of the central and eastern United States could face blackouts during severe cold weather this winter. The report highlights that extreme cold can affect electricity supplies, with potential problems arising from freezing temperatures, limited natural gas supplies, and the unreliability of wind and solar energy sources. NERC has expressed concerns for years about the grid’s increased reliance on wind and solar energy, particularly as access to coal resources decreases and dependence on natural gas grows. The report underlines that the existing pipeline infrastructure may not be sufficient to supply gas to homes and power plants during peak demand periods.
With predictions of a colder winter, the situation may worsen, especially as natural-gas-fired power plants could struggle if gas supplies become inadequate. Regions most at risk include those that have reduced their coal and natural gas generation capacity, as well as areas with limited natural gas pipeline capacity. For example, the Midcontinent Independent System Operator (MISO), which serves 15 states, has decreased its generation capacity by 5 gigawatts since last year, raising concerns about potential supply shortages in the event of a cold snap.
In addition, the Southwest Power Pool has lost 4 gigawatts of generation capacity, with most of this loss linked to adjustments in wind and solar resources that are less effective in winter. New York and New England are also noted to have increased risks of blackouts for similar reasons heavy reliance on renewable energy and pipeline limitations. In Pennsylvania and surrounding areas, ongoing legal challenges regarding a natural gas pipeline expansion may further complicate supply issues.
Natural gas producers have pushed back against some of NERC's conclusions, stating they have taken steps to prepare for winter conditions and ensure reliable service to customers. Officials from the Natural Gas Supply Association emphasize their proactive measures, including enhanced facility protections and better communication strategies.
To address potential challenges, NERC recommends that utilities finalize their plans for winter readiness before December, prepare for unexpected spikes in demand during extreme cold, and conduct fuel supply assessments to guarantee adequate natural gas supplies.
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