Thursday, August 1, 2024

The Fed is holding interest rates steady. This won't last much longer.

After such a long period holding rates flat, it would be unprecedented for the Fed to begin a new cycle of rising rates.

During today's FOMC press conference, Fed chairman Jerome Powell stated that the committee did discuss the prospects of lowering the target rate.

Last week, former New York Fed president Bill Dudley-who had formerly called for holding the target rate "Higher for longer"-announced that he has changed his mind and stated he believes the Fed should cut the target rate now, and "Preferably at next week's policymaking meeting."

When the Fed does cut, that's a virtual admission that the Fed fears a recession has already started.

In every cycle for more than forty years, the Fed has cut rates after the recession has already begun.

There is a feeling among some Fed watchers that the Fed could cut rates right before the election in an effort to help the incumbent party.

Regardless of who is elected, we can look forward to the Fed doing what it always does: it will begin to force down the target interest rate even more as economic conditions worsen. 

https://mises.org/mises-wire/fed-holding-interest-rates-steady-wont-last-much-longer 

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