Electoral College Rating Changes: Half-Dozen Moves Toward Republicans In What Remains A Toss-Up Race

 Table 1: Crystal Ball Electoral College rating changes Table 2: Crystal Ball Senate rating change An updated look at the Electoral College Today we're making a half-dozen changes to our Electoral College ratings, all of them benefiting the Republicans.

Map 1 shows the updated ratings, which now show 251 electoral votes at least leaning toward the Republicans and 241 at least leaning toward the Democrats.

Biden's approval rating is in a dangerous zone-the high 30s-and he has been in that weak place consistently since November, according to the FiveThirtyEight average.

We think Casey will likely do better than Biden, but not overwhelmingly better, so it makes sense to make these moves in tandem.

If Republicans do in fact win all of the electoral votes at least leaning to them in our ratings, 251, the 19 electoral votes in Pennsylvania would put them at exactly 270.

Keep in mind that if Biden loses Arizona, Georgia, and Nevada from his 2020 map, he could still get 270 electoral votes on the nose if he holds everything else he won four years ago, including the single electoral vote in the Omaha-based 2nd Congressional District of Nebraska.

Under the current lines, Biden carried that district by 6 points; in a world where Biden is holding Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin, we'd have to imagine he is also holding NE-2, which was several points bluer than those states four years ago and has a fairly high four-year college attainment rate. 

https://centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/electoral-college-rating-changes-half-dozen-moves-toward-republicans-in-what-remains-a-toss-up-race/