Monday, May 13, 2024

China Is Facing An Epic Deflationary Crash That It Can No Longer Hide

 The biggest story in China in the new millennia has been nation's debt explosion.  China's debt-to-GDP ratio is currently estimated at nearly 300% (official numbers), with most of the liabilities accrued in the past 15 years.  Chinese debt spending accelerated in part because of the global credit crash of 2008, but a lesser known factor is their entry into the IMF's Special Drawing Rights basket.  The process started around 2011 and the IMF requires any prospective applicant to take on a wide array of debt instruments before they can be added to the global currency mechanism. 

By the time of China's official inclusion in the SDR in 2016 they had nearly doubled their national debt.  After 2016 debt levels skyrocketed.

The debt problem is harder to quantify in China because of their communist structure posing as a free market structure.

Corporate debt in China has to be included into the national debt picture because of state funded enterprises and the level of government investment in property and industry.

China's export market is crumbling in the past year, in large part because western consumers are tapped out due to inflation.

China's propaganda machine is pervasive across the world and most people in the west assume that China is on the cutting edge of progress because of videos on social media.

China is planning another 1 trillion Yuan in infrastructure projects in 2024 alone, but the debt cycle and the deflationary spiral seem to be catching up with them.

The IMF claims that China's economy has stumbled but is "Unlikely to fall" with their global exports falling, property markets plunging and consumer activity in decline it's hard to see how they can continue without a depression-like event in the near future. 

https://www.zerohedge.com/economics/china-facing-epic-deflationary-crash-it-can-no-longer-hide

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