Four of Britain’s Top Institutions Have Made Erroneous Estimates of the Cost of Net Zero

 According to Sir Christopher, the Climate Change Committee's estimates of the costs of Net Zero are fundamentally flawed because they have only modelled isolated years.

As he pointed out in the seminar, low-wind years can happen back to back, which means that the Climate Change Committee need twice as much storage capacity as they thought.

In the same seminar, Sir Christopher pointed out that the National Infrastructure Commission has done the same thing, despite being warned of the problem of clusters of low-wind years.

I wrote to the NGESO team to ask how they did things, and was told that their models are prepared using weather conditions in 2013, which they describe as an "Average year".

That's because, while they model 37 years of different wind speeds, they assume that electricity demand is always the same.

Sir Christopher has admitted that this is not correct, in a podcast broadcast last year.

Electricity demand will therefore be much higher in cold years than in mild ones, and if we have back to back cold years, we are going to need much more storage. 

https://wattsupwiththat.com/2024/01/25/four-of-britains-top-institutions-have-made-erroneous-estimates-of-the-cost-of-net-zero/