From a statewide race in the largest hyper-competitive battleground, to the latest effort to tap into popular abortion-rights support in red states, to new tests of the Black voter enthusiasm that President Joe Biden and Democrats will need, Election Day 2023 will be full of lessons for 2024.
Here's my cheat sheet on the 10 races that both election nerds and casual observers should be following to see where voters stand a year before the presidential election.
Kentucky governor ANDY BESHEAR vs. Daniel Cameron What we'll learn: Whether a popular governor can defy his state's partisan lean Previous election: Andy Beshear 49%, Matt Bevin 49% 2020 presidential election: Donald Trump 62%, Joe Biden 36% Beshear has high approval ratings after four years as governor, especially for a Democrat.
Mississippi governor TATE REEVES vs. Brandon Presley What we'll learn: Do Democrats have an enthusiasm problem with Black voters? Previous election: Tate Reeves 52%, Jim Hood 47% 2020 presidential election: Trump 58%, Biden 41% Democrats thought they had the ingredients for an upset four years ago, when they ran Mississippi's popular then-state attorney general, Jim Hood, in an open-seat race against Reeves, the lieutenant governor at the time.
Pennsylvania state Supreme Court Daniel McCaffery vs. Carolyn Carluccio What we'll learn: Where a critical swing state stands going into 2024 Previous election: Max Baer 71% 2020 presidential election: Biden 50%, Trump 49% Unlike in Wisconsin this spring, the race for a vacant seat on Pennsylvania's state Supreme Court won't determine the majority: There are currently four Democrats and two Republicans on the bench.
Virginia state Senate: 31st District Russet Perry vs. Juan Pablo Segura What we'll learn: Whether Glenn Youngkin's Republican revival continues in territory that had been rapidly trending blue Previous election: N/A 2021 gubernatorial election: Glenn Youngkin 50%, Terry McAuliffe 49% Democrats' narrow majority in the state Senate is their only toehold on power in Richmond after the GOP's 2021 victories.
Virginia state Senate: 16th District SIOBHAN DUNNAVANT vs. Schuyler VanValkenburg What we'll learn: Can Republicans craft a winning message on abortion? Previous election: N/A 2021 gubernatorial election: Terry McAuliffe 53%, Glenn Youngkin 46% A Republican sweep would allow Youngkin to enact his agenda, which includes outlawing abortion after 15 weeks of pregnancy, with exceptions for rape, incest and the life of the expectant mother.
Virginia state House: 57th District Susanna Gibson vs. David Owen What we'll learn: Are sex scandals fatal in the post-Trump era? Previous election: N/A 2021 gubernatorial election: Glenn Youngkin 51%, Terry McAuliffe 48% We can all pretend that we're above the prurient interest in Gibson's electoral fortunes, after the Democratic nominee was revealed back in September to have had sex with her husband on a live-streaming porn site.
New Jersey state Senate: 3rd District ED DURR vs. John Burzichelli What we'll learn: Can the author of 2021's biggest electoral upset keep on truckin'? Previous election: N/A 2020 presidential election: N/A The most surprising election result of the last off-year race, in 2021, belonged to Durr, the former truck driver who beat state Senate President Steve Sweeney.
Rhode Island congressional special election: 1st District Gabe Amo vs. Gerry Leonard What we'll learn: Whether Democrats' special-election overperformance continues Previous election: David Cicilline 64%, Allen Waters 36% 2020 presidential election: Biden 64%, Trump 35% There's little doubt that Amo, the former Biden White House aide who won a September primary to replace Cicilline, will win Tuesday's special election.
Suffolk County executive Ed Romaine vs. Dave Calone What we'll learn: Is New York's red wave still going after the GOP's 2022 midterm success? Previous election: Steve Bellone 56%, John Kennedy 43% 2020 presidential election: Trump 49%, Biden 49% Of the nation's 25 most-populous counties, Suffolk County, which comprises the eastern half of Long Island, is the only one Trump carried in 2020.
https://www.politico.com/news/2023/11/04/10-biggest-races-election-day-00125386
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