Well, here I am minding my own business, working on a boring venture capital post, when here comes the Bureau of Labor Statistics announcement of October jobs data.
"Expectations" were for 180,000 new jobs, according to the survey of businesses.
The unemployment rate rose to 3.9% and large numbers of people are working multiple jobs to keep up.
The sketchy model used to estimate how many jobs were added by new businesses versus lost by businesses going bust added 412,000 jobs, the second highest ever.
Where were jobs added? Why in government of course, and in education, which is largely government supported, and in health care, which is hard to avoid for most people.
On interest rates, I think we have entered a new world where fed policy and even GDP numbers aren't going to drive rates; the unending new supply of federal debt issuance will.
Buyers aren't going to accept lower rates, so any dip you see now in the ten year note won't last and won't continue the downtrend.
https://healthy-skeptic.com/2023/11/03/ooops-the-labor-statistics-mirages-comes-to-a-crashing-halt/
No comments:
Post a Comment