Here is The Next Six Months Fed Playbook.. they hope

Report Conclusions

Hiking: The Fed will not hike again unless inflation pops above 4% or if the Long Bond yield drops back to where it was which re-accelerates housing.

Based on what Powell said, the market’s reactions, and the slated actions on deck for Yellen’s Treasury:We will have an accelerated growth rate without disrupting disinflationary forces (return of Goldilocks)— market agreeing with the Fed’s pitchThe Fed will not raise anymore, and is despite (or because of) the above statement, will ease— That is not the message the Fed was conveying. The market ignored the Fed’s tough talkYellen’s Treasury is just now set to facilitate Economic recovery — by saving less and spending more next quarter.

In it, he lays out the moving parts and market biases based on yesterday's pronounced behavior, for the next 6-12 months surrounding Fed behavior.

Powell Implies Bigger growth with even less inflation now.

The Fed will not hike again unless inflation pops above 4% or if the Long Bond yield drops back to where it was which re-accelerates housing.

Inflation popping above 4% seems unlikely in the next 6 months as the pipeline is currently full of disinflationary forces.

The Fed will not ease unless Unemployment goes above 4% with an accompanying recession.

We will have an accelerated growth rate without disrupting disinflationary forces- market agreeing with the Fed's pitch.

The Fed will not raise anymore, and is despite the above statement, will ease- That is not the message the Fed was conveying.

https://vblgoldfix.substack.com/p/founders-here-is-the-next-six-months