The Labor Department has consistently overestimated payroll growth predictions under the 46th president and has been forced to revise the data downward to reflect slower economic growth throughout 2023.
The Commerce Department significantly revised economic growth downward, dropping last quarter's Gross Domestic Product by three-tenths of a point from 2.4% to 2.1%. Experts say the administration's overly positive economic predictions - especially on jobs - are masking the growing discomfort that every day Americans feel from inflation and rising interest rates.
Since January, the Labor Department has overestimated seasonally adjusted job growth.
The agency initially said the U.S. added 517,000 jobs from December to January, but later revised that number to 472,000, reflecting an overestimate of 45,000.
Image Differences in payroll estimates, Jan. 2023 - June 2023 Differences in payroll estimates, Jan. 2023 - June 2023 Madeleine Hubbard/Google Sheets A particularly egregious overestimate occurred in June when the Labor Department initially said the U.S. gained 209,000 new jobs.
While the Labor Department had overestimated and underestimated payroll employment throughout 2021 and 2022 with overall revisions showing that job growth was underestimated, 2023 is the first year that the Biden administration has consistently overestimated growth.
Under the Trump administration, job growth was higher than expected every year.
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