Thursday, October 20, 2022

Continued Misuse of Texas Crime Data

 The Center published a report last week showing that illegal immigrants are convicted of crime in Texas at higher rates than previously estimated in a Proceedings of the National Academy of Science (PNAS) article and in a series of studies published by the Cato Institute. These studies understated illegal immigrant crime due to the time it takes to identify illegals in custody.

Still Missing the Illegal Immigrants Identified in Prison

  • Nowrasteh dismisses the data we obtained from the Texas Department of Public Safety (DPS) as an anomaly because he says he has newer DPS data that does not show as many homicide convictions of illegals as we do.
  • He finds fewer convictions of illegal immigrants than we do because he is not looking at the full data.
  • The DPS data is incomplete. It includes only the first two of the four immigration status categories listed above.

Denominator Distraction

  • Nowrasteh includes innuendo about our choice of denominator when calculating the illegal conviction rate
  • We used the number of illegal immigrants in Texas as estimated by the Center for Migration Studies (CMS), but the fact that we have sometimes in the past used alternative population estimates from the Department of Homeland Security (DHS) strikes him as suspicious
  • CMS is the same source used by the PNAS article and the first two Cato studies, making it the obvious choice for any re-analysis

https://cis.org/Richwine/Continued-Misuse-Texas-Crime-Data

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