Time to Stop Pretending Renewables Are Cheap

In the ongoing discussion about transitioning from fossil fuels to renewable energy, there are numerous claims that downplay the costs and inefficiencies of renewable sources like solar and wind. This article, written by Tilak Doshi, challenges the notion that renewables are cheap and addresses the "primary energy fallacy" often referenced by proponents of renewable energy.

1. Misleading Narratives: Supporters of renewables often claim that renewable energy sources, such as wind and solar, are cheap and efficient compared to fossil fuels. However, the article highlights that these claims serve to distract from the realities of energy economics and physics.

2. Primary Energy Fallacy: Advocates argue that traditional metrics of energy consumption underrepresent the benefits of renewables by not accounting for their efficiency in converting energy to electricity. Fossil fuels lose energy as waste heat during generation, while renewables convert their energy inputs to electricity with minimal losses.

3. Energy Production Reality: While wind and solar may appear efficient in electricity generation, the majority of energy consumption (about 80%) occurs in non-electric forms, where fossil fuels perform better in terms of efficiency. Many industries rely on fossil fuels for processes that cannot be electrified.

4. Products Beyond Electricity: Fossil fuels are critical not only for energy but also for creating over 6,000 products essential for modern life. Renewables do not provide the raw materials needed for these products, leading to a reliance on fossil fuels for food production, pharmaceuticals, and many other sectors.

5. Intermittency Issues: Renewable sources like wind and solar generate electricity intermittently, requiring backup systems mostly powered by fossil fuels. This redundancy increases costs without providing consistent energy reliability.

6. Economic Impact: Countries like Germany, which invest heavily in renewables, have seen rising electricity costs and reliance on fossil fuel backups. The financial burdens of transitioning to renewables do not translate to significant emissions reductions.

7. Energy Return on Investment: The energy return on investment (eROI) for renewables is lower than that of fossil fuels and nuclear power. Renewables require more resources for production and have shorter operational lifetimes, which leads to higher long-term energy demands.

8. Environmental and Spatial Concerns: Large-scale renewable projects require vast land areas and have raised environmental concerns regarding habitat destruction and land use. This has prompted opposition from rural communities and conservationists.

9. Supply Chain Vulnerabilities: The dependence on rare earth materials for renewables poses geopolitical risks, as China controls a significant portion of the supply chain for these materials.

10. Full Cost of Electricity: The true cost of renewables incorporates factors like intermittency, grid integration, and environmental impacts. This reveals that renewables are often more expensive than the initial cost estimates suggest.

The article asserts that the so-called "primary energy fallacy" is itself misleading, obscuring the real costs associated with transitioning to renewable energy. The push for renewables overlooks the benefits and efficiency of fossil fuels, which are still essential for modern energy needs and industrial processes. Until there are viable alternatives or improvements in storage technologies, fossil fuels will remain indispensable in achieving energy security and affordability, especially for developing nations. The conclusion encourages policymakers to adopt a pragmatic approach to energy that prioritizes reliability and abundance over ideological pursuits. 

https://tilakdoshi.substack.com/p/time-to-stop-pretending-renewables